G-SPOT

BY VIRGINIA J. PASALO

The Filipino at “war’

Ronald Llamas doused fears fueled by warmongers that the Philippines may be attacked by missiles launched from Iran. He is right, Iranian ballistic missiles can travel at most 2,500 kilometers and the Philippines is entirely beyond reach at 6,500 – 7,000 kilometers. Iran’s missiles are designed for regional deterrence focused on Israel, Gulf states and US military bases in the Middle East.

However, the joint US-Israel preemptive attack on Iran have far-reaching impact on Southeast Asian nations, with the Philippines classified as one of the more vulnerable countries on several fronts:

1. OFW Remittances: Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) account for almost 70% of newly deployed land-based Filipino workers worldwide each year in West Asia. The Philippine Star reported that OFW remittances contribute 8.3% of Philippine GDP, and the $38 billion in annual remittances fuels the consumption that accounts for 84% of GDP. An estimated 2.1 to 2.4 million Filipinos live in the Middle East as of early 2026, primarily working in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The Middle Eastholds the largest concentration of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) worldwide, with significant populations also in Qatar, Kuwait, and Israel. A protracted war affects the earning potential and remittances of OFWs. In the event that 10% will be affected and need to be evacuated, the cost of evacuating will be enormous, “approximately $500 million in income losses over six months”.

2. US Military Presence: The Philippines operates nine military installations under full ownership and control of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) allowing US forces full military presence through the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). EDCA “allows U.S. forces expanded, rotational access to designated Philippine military bases, enabling them to build, improve, and operate facilities for training, equipment storage, and prepositioning of supplies. It authorizes activities like refueling, repairing, and accommodating personnel, strengthening the alliance’s logistical and rapid-response capabilities.” Although Iran’s ballistic missiles cannot reach the Philippines at the moment, it can foment terrorist strikes against US interests worldwide, including in the Philippines, where the US has significant military presence.

3. Middle East Oil dependency: The Philippines imports approximately 170 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products annually from the Middle East, spending over $15 billion dollars. This accounts for 90% of all the country’s oil imports, one of the highest rates of Middle East dependency in all of Asia, the core reason for its huge impact on ordinary Filipinos. The conflict has disrupted approximately 20% of global oil supplies transiting the Strait of Hormuz, causing the rise in fuel prices worldwide, including the Philippines, where, according to Bloomberg, inflation already quickened to 2.4% in February, the fastest pace in over a year, even before the war’s full impact feeds through.

To mitigate the impact of the war, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is asking Congress to grant him emergency powers to lower fuel excise taxes if Dubai crude tops $80 per barrel, and said fuel subsidies could be provided to the transport and agriculture sectors. However, this is just to cushion the impact in the short term. A long-lasting survival strategy must be crafted with other Southeast Asian nations, allies and other neighboring countries to provide a shield from the impact of the economic crisis resulting from the war and the imminent threat of its escalation.

The greatest risk to the Philippines is not from an Iranian ballistic missile, but a prolonged energy shock exacerbated by remittance disruption, a combination that could meaningfully slow growth and squeeze household incomes for the rest of 2026.