PH’s economy at risk due to war
The assurance of the Armed Forces of the Philippines that rising tensions in the Middle East pose no direct threat to national security comes as a welcome balm to a worried nation. At the same time, the commitment of oil companies to the Department of Energy that fuel reserves can last for months offers a measure of stability amid global uncertainty.
However, the real and immediate danger lies not within our borders but beyond them — where thousands of Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) remain in harm’s way as conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran threatens to widen. While government officials project calm, Filipino workers in the region are taking shelter in underground bunkers, sharing the fear and trauma of missile sirens with citizens of their host countries.
Tragically, the danger is no longer hypothetical. A woman from Basista, Pangasinan, was killed in Israel by a missile fired from Iran. Her death underscores a harsh truth: geopolitical conflicts exact a human toll, and Filipinos are not spared. Yet many OFWs have chosen to stay. For them, returning home means unemployment, unpaid debts, and families left without support.
Faced with the choice between bombs abroad and hunger at home, they seem to prefer staying where they are. It is a painful calculation that reveals the depth of our economic dependence on overseas labor.
Remittances, the lifeblood of countless Filipino households and a pillar of the national economy, may slow or temporarily stop if hostilities intensify. Families who rely solely on these funds could soon feel the strain. The ripple effects would reach far beyond individual homes, touching local businesses and the broader economy.
Energy security is another looming concern. While current fuel supplies remain stable, prolonged conflict in Western Asia could disrupt global oil routes. History reminds us of the vulnerability of oil-dependent nations — from Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait to subsequent wars that rattled world markets. Fuel rationing, soaring prices, and economic slowdowns are not far-fetched scenarios.
The Philippines may not be a combatant, but it is far from immune. This moment demands vigilance, contingency planning, and compassionate governance.
Authorities must be ready to repatriate Filipinos who choose to return, provide livelihood support for displaced workers, and ensure social safety nets for affected families. At the same time, energy planners must prepare for worst-case scenarios, diversifying supply sources and strengthening conservation measures.
Above all, we can only hope that diplomacy prevails over destruction. A wider war would not only destabilize regions but could also threaten global peace and economic survival. The world has seen enough devastation.
For now, we hold on to assurances. But we must also prepare for realities.