Motorists are being put on notice: the next weekly adjustment could open with a heavy punch. Industry estimates point to a diesel increase of โฑ1.80 to โฑ2.00 per liter effective Tuesday, January 20, with gasoline projected to rise by โฑ1.00 to โฑ1.20 per literโa move that would extend dieselโs run to a fourth straight hike and mark gasolineโs second consecutive increase.
Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas traced the pressure to a week where crude and refined product benchmarks โincreased significantlyโ over the first four trading daysโdespite the market also staring at a potential supply glut. The message is that oversupply is not the only pricing driver right now; volatility is being priced as risk premium, and that premium is landing directly on retail pumps.
The trigger points Bellas cited are geopolitical and simultaneous: instability tied to Venezuela, rising tensions around Iran, and security disruptions linked to the Black Seaโa trifecta that has kept oil traders reacting to headlines as much as inventories. Reuters reporting this week similarly described oil markets wrestling with overlapping crises even as oversupply narratives persist, reflecting the push-pull that makes weekly forecasts prone to sharp revisions.
Iran is the pressure valve that matters most for global shipping risk: Bellas flagged concerns that escalating unrestโand the possibility of external involvementโcould threaten flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for Persian Gulf oil. Whether the worst-case scenario materializes or not, the price behavior is already clear: uncertainty is getting billed in advance, and Filipino consumers are positioned to absorb it at the pump on Jan. 20.
Image from Chadchai Krisadapon